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New York, October 31, 2008: With less than a week until election day, the media coverage remains focused on two things: the economy and polls and predictions regarding the outcome of the race.

"There is an unprecedented focus on the economy in the news," says Roland Schatz, President of Media Tenor International. "In the last year economic issues have gone from having a 5% share of the broadcasts to 30% and it has helped to change the tone of the race.”

How voters are viewing the economy depends, however, on where they are getting their news. “People preferring ABC, CBS or NBC are seeing a much scarier picture of the economy than people watching Fox News,” Schatz notes. “The campaigns´ strategies are playing to these two different groups. Obama is addressing the audience for ABC, CBS and NBC, while McCain´s arguments are more tailored to the Fox News viewers.”

While Obama continues to dominate in the coverage of polls and predictions, Schatz emphasizes that the race is too unique to call. “We´ve never had an election with this level of economic awareness. This is also the first time we´ve had an African-American presidential candidate, and that raises some questions about the accuracy of polling. Social scientists have long looked at the degree to which voters respond honestly in polling, and there seems to be a gap of as much of 8% when it comes to sensitive issues like race and gender,” Schatz notes. “Because of this, it´s hard to know if US voters will really vote for a black candidate, and if Obama´s current margins in the polls is enough to overcome this effect.”

With just a few days of campaigning left, and high turnout in states that allow early voting, the candidates are running out of time to impact the outcome. “Obama will need to keep focusing on the economy; McCain will need to keep talking about taxes; and it will be the media image of the country and the race that helps voters come to their decision, not the record levels of advertising,” Schatz adds, noting how Giuliani´s $100M advertising budget didn´t help him in Florida during the primaries.

“From September to January, Giuiliani´s media share dropped from 50% to just 5%, demonstrating that media awareness, not advertising, is what really effects voters. This is also obvious if you look at the campaign today and Obama´s lead in advertising. He has a huge advantage there, but the race is still very close,” Schatz says.

Media Tenor views Obama´s decision to spend an additional $5M on the 30-minute television advertisement Wednesday night as a clear signal that the talk that the race has already been decided is just that: spin. This type of advertising buy makes it clear the Obama campaign still views the race as highly competitive.


For the third time, International Media analysis company Media Tenor is offering a detailed analysis of the U.S. presidential campaign. TV news coverage of the leading Presidential contenders is scrutinized at a detailed level. “The methodology was developed 15 years ago and has been successfully used not only to analyze the 2000 and 2004 U.S. Presidential campaigns, but also for International politics,” Schatz explains. Media Tenor´s Presidential Campaign Watch focuses not only on candidate standings, but also on topics and sources, while adding an international perspective. Results of Media Tenor studies will be regularly published on MediaChannel.org.

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